Surprise, Not All Stove Are Hot

It is something, likely, as old as stoves. Most folks quickly learn not to touch hot stoves.

Actually, it is not so important today as it was a couple of centuries ago when ole Ben first started building stoves. Generally speaking, when someone would touch a hot stove, they were not apt to repeat it.

Actually, I suspect it went back even farther than that. Before there were stoves, there were fireplaces. Before fireplaces campfires, or their equivalent.

I even heard a tale of one of the big wigs at Levi learning not to kneel next to campfires…first time. It was then that they decided to remove one or two of the rivets from the area just below the fly of their famous canvas trousers.

The one thing brought away from the first experience was the probability of pain, sometimes a little embarrassment too. However, here’s the news. Not all stoves are hot. Not all rivets are hot. It just is that once exposed to these experiences we mostly come away thinking they are, or at least can be. It is referred to as inductive reasoning. Because the first stove we touch is hot, we assume all stoves are hot.

What if the reverse is true. What if the first stove you touch is ambient temperature? Do we then assume that all stoves are cool to the touch. If we do this, we expose ourselves to many painful experiences. This is called inductive reasoning.

While it is useful, it can easily lead to errors. For instance, if we see a brown Labrador retriever, it would be wrong to assume that all dogs are brown and weigh eighty pounds. Indeed, it would be wrong to assume that all Labs are brown. Oddly there are some that are black.

On the other hand, suppose we touch a hundred cool stoves. Can we then assume are stoves are cool? If we see a hundred brown Labs, are we to assume that all labs are brown.

You see, even though we see a large number of examples, we cannot truly assume anything.

Until we see a large enough number of examples, we cannot positively say that we know all labs are brown and that all stoves are cool. Even when working with large numbers, inductive reasoning can lead us astray.

I wish that kids in the eighth grade were required to spend a few hours learning about inductive and deductive reasoning. I am convinced the concept is extremely important in so many parts of life.

Let’s take for instance, the woman that is robbed by an African American. Is it right for her to be afraid of all African Americans? Of course, not. Yet, it may take her years to get over the experience. Our fears are not always founded on good logic. Indeed, her fear might keep her from many good friendships.

The somewhat opposite of inductive reasoning is deductive reasoning. In deductive reasoning, we draw conclusions from many, perhaps exhaustive numbers of examples. It is best that these examples are at random. It is the way that medical research is done. I suppose we can say that statistics and deductive reasoning are interrelated. The more the examples and the more random, the more accurate will be the stats deductive reasoning that depends on the stats.

If we have a random selection of a million dogs, it is likely that only a few will be Labs and we will likely see a few black dogs, white dogs and even a few multi-color dogs. Therefore, we can have a more accurate idea of the coloring of dogs. If we take a random measurement of a million stoves, we might actually find that only 30% are hot enough to cause pain, or even discomfort. (only a wild guess, not am actual statistic)

I’m not going to try to create an equivalent example with the thievery. It’s far too complex and there are too many ways it can go wrong with my imaginary statistics. Moreover, I am not going to suggest that a woman should get robbed a million times. Two or three maybe, but no more. Still, the principles remain firm. With a larger number of examples, we would be able to draw more accurate deductions.

However, we need to be careful about drawing snap conclusions. When we go from the millions of examples and try to derive a single situation from millions of examples, we can still be wrong. For instance, if I may. It would not indicate that a thief is of any ethnicity, and it would be wrong to make any such suggestion.

Yet, every day, I see some people blame Black men because of individual as well as vast statistical data. Those methods just don’t work. And, by the way, the methods don’t work on Caucasian policemen, again, regardless of past inductive or deductive reasoning. You cannot convict a policeman based on past experience just as the woman cannot convict based on past thieves.

Perhaps the most horrible example of inductive reasoning is when the person says, “Single parent families are just as good as two-parent families.” Then they go about calling out two, three or four examples of good kids brough up by single parents. That logic has two holes. First, it is based on a very small count of examples. Second, there is the probability that, if there is a second parent, the child would likely have turned out better. The statistics back it up. We are talking millions of examples not just two or three.

On the other side of the coin, I see people say that a particular person turned out good or bad because of his parent(s). The stats prove that some good kids come from bad or broken homes and bad kids come from homes with good parents.

In this case, the inductive logic gets us nowhere and the deductive logic only shows trends. The trend shows overwhelmingly that two parent homes are better. But logic tells us that it is only true if they are good parents. Abusive and or alcoholic parents rarely qualify as good parents. Yet, again, some good kids come from homes with abusive parents. Sorry. I have no explanation for that. I’m not sure there is one.

For those who are not truly familiar with the terms inductive and deductive reasoning, may I suggest you take an hour or two and look into it on the net. Most will find it far more complex than most of us realize. For instance, one thing that must accurately be determined in inductive reasoning is an accurate correlation. For instance, that dance by that Voo-do doctor likely has nothing to do with that solar eclipse. On the other hand, all that rain I dumped on my lawn the other day likely had nothing to do with the thunderstorm we got the next day, though it did seem a little coincidental. If we collected enough data, it is likely to be proved that the one thing had nothing to do with the other.

Getting Along

As the man said, “Can’t we all just get along?”

Every day I get out on the road. During the day, especially after four in the afternoon, they get crowded. Now that we are approaching Christmas, they are going to get especially crowded around the stores, especially Walmart. Some of the intersections can get bottle-necked. There is one intersection near the Chick-fil-a where it can come that it can come to a complete stand still. It is the reason that we park about half a block away whenever we go there… and this though the dinning room is not yet open.

Nonetheless, most of us make it through just fine, though our nerves are a bit frazzled and we burn maybe a quart of gas getting the quarter mile or so. Then too, there is the time element. The reason we usually get along on the road is because of laws, rules that govern who can go and when. We are also encouraged to let the other drivers know our intentions. I find most drivers are courteous provided I use my signals and don’t make any sudden moves. As my brother told me before I did any driving, “Surprises might be fine for birthdays, but not so much for driving.”

Occasionally, though all the rules of the road are followed by everyone, people do have accidents. However, ‘accidents’ are generally the results of someone doing something wrong. Sometimes, it is unintentional; sometime it is right on purpose. Some take advantage of some imagined privilege and before you know it, bumpers are touching and then the tempers really flare. Sometimes, because someone thinks he is special and it ends in the loss of life. In such cases, the police become involved and no one likes the outcome.

When we were making a long road trip, my brother mentioned something that amazed me. On the two lane highway, people were passing each other at the relative speed of 130 mph, assuming both drivers are at the speed limit. A head on collision at that speed is almost always fatal. Yet, we do it everyday, somewhat casually, assuming the driver going the other way is going to stay on his side of the line. By the way, we do this just about 3 or 4 feet apart as we pass. As I think it over, it scares me. However, I still do it, giving it little thought.

The thing is, if we don’t “Just get along,” the results can be horrible, even fatal. So, in general, we follow the rules. In general, we remain relatively courteous. When it calls for it, we take our turn.

On the other hand there are those who are special. When one lane is closed, they wait until the last minute to make the lane change. It isn’t that they just crowd in front of me, but they are also crowding in front of the fifty patient drivers behind me who do it right. Sometimes they go into the emergency lanes. The police don’t like that because the lanes are reserved for real emergencies, not privileged drivers. It makes it difficult for ambulances, fire vehicles and tow trucks to make it through.

Sometimes these privileged drivers enter intersections, knowing that there is not going to be any room for them on the opposite side. When people do that, they cause gridlock. That is sort of what happens near the Chick-fil-a. Lights turn green; lights turn red. Then, because there are cars in the intersection, no one goes anywhere.

I can go on and on, but I am sure you know what I mean. The purpose for me explaining that which you know is to point out something that just might not be so obvious. We have other laws too, rules that we are supposed to follow. When we don’t it can result in problems. Yet there are people who disobey them. In some cases, they are caught by police and they are made to pay for the infractions. Other times, they get away with it. Here lately, it would seem they get away with it, as others watch. Sometimes even while others cheer them on. Sometimes, right in front of the eyes of law enforcement officers.

In situations such as this, it is as if there are no laws. It makes us a lawless society. In the end, it is to the detriment of all. For no one wants to live where there is no law.

Yet we have a political party that would have such a country. They want us to live in a place of theft and pillaging. They like it when the murderer murders and the innocent citizen goes to prison for defending his life and property. The figuratively put cuffs on the border patrol and ICE while they wave the law breaking illegal aliens through.

To be sure, where there is no enforcement, there is no law. Where there is no law, there is no justice. Where there is no justice, there is no just getting along. It was the reason for the law in the first place. But then the lawless society is exactly what they want and it is exactly what they are forcing onto the rest of us, like it or not.

Due to recent revelations, it would appear our nations number one law enforcement organization threw all the laws away. Instead of enforcing them they were breaking them. Dozens suffered the results directly. We all suffered indirectly. Yet, I doubt any of those really behind it will ever see the inside of a prison cell. Certainly neither of the Clintons will. There power and influence are simply too great. This is ironic seeing as Mrs. Clinton said that no one is above the law. Besides, there is no way the media will permit either of the Clintons to suffer such indignity.

If it becomes that way on the roadways, we might all be better walking.

If Only

If only the dems could manage foreign policy as well as they can rig elections.

(Wish I could say I thought of it myself. I heard someone quote President Trump.)

Let me add my personal remark. Maybe it would be nice if they could manage the border, improve our schools, control crime, or run an economy. Trump’s remarks make me wonder how they managed to rig the election without anyone knowing it.

Wait a minute. Everyone does know it. The dems just refuse to admit it and the media jumps on anyone who brings it up with both feet. It is the worst kept secret in history.

Counterfeit

In Matthew 17, Jesus told Peter to catch a fish and take a four drachma coin from its mouth. I was young the first time I heard the story. It seemed odd to me. Jesus did not need the fish. He could have made dozens of the coins with his spoken word. I suppose he could have also used many other methods as well. But, he told Peter to get the coin from the fishes mouth.

In the musical, “Fiddler on the Roof,” we could hear the whimsical song, “If I Were a Rich Man.” I totally enjoyed the song long before I saw the movie or play. To be sure I identified with it. Actually, I still do. I’m not greedy. I would be very happy with a million or two. I would not turn down five or six. It would not solve all my problems but it would solve most of them.

What does the one thing have to do with the other? Although God can make money, He rarely if ever does. On that day, when Jesus was asked about the taxes, if Jesus produced the money out of thin air, that would have been an act of counterfeiting. The money He would have made would have been produced outside the authority of the government and Jesus recognizes authority, even human authority.

I don’t know how that works completely, but had he made that coin, that would have been a sin, and Jesus does not sin. It does go beyond that. Let’s say God took pity on me, and maybe a few thousand others. He spoke the word and instantly, we would all have five million dollar bank accounts. That would not only be counterfeit in mass, but it could be very damaging to our economy.

That money represents work, skill and knowledge. When it is just given to me, it short circuits the system. It can and would likely negatively effect our economy. Suddenly, there would be millions more money in circulation and hence, each dollar would be worth less. Therefore, God would be improperly taking the representation of the work of thousands and giving it to me. I would benefit from the work of others wrongfully, as would the others.

So now, the government, in all its wisdom has decided it is okay to redistribute wealth. I get to benefit from the sweat of your brow and you get to benefit from the sweat of mine. Never mind the product of our work. Never mind my laziness. All those who have worked so hard to build those apartments. Never mind them. Let them go into debt while those who refuse to work live in the fruits of the work of their landlords.

God does not redistribute wealth because he knows it is not right. Why should the government know better.

Communism is a relatively new economic system. Capitalism is as old as trading. I will give you so many of these if you give me so many of that. I will help you build your home if you will provide food and clothing for me. If you provide me a boat, I will provide fish for you.

The coinage only made it all simpler. At first it had no government backing. However, over time, only the governments coined the money. At least that is the way it was supposed to work. Then they started taxing to pay for mutual defense and roads and such. Now it has gotten into a tangled mess, but it works the same.

The problem is that that there are a number of things that throw things out of kilter. There is, of course robbery. As mentioned a fore, counterfeiting. Then there is gambling and lotteries. In the blink of an eye, gambling can transfer the equivalent of large amounts of work from one to another. Such things throw the capitalists system out of kilter.

The man that loses all his wages cannot pay his rent. The gambling sites draw crowds of unsavory types. And then of course, those that own the “house” live on the fruits of the labor of others without adding one thing to society. Indeed, they become the “rich men” as sung of in the above song.

The work they do is a counterfeit work. But they are not alone. Those in government know how to counterfeit their contributions to society too. They tax some while they give to others… all the time skimming some off for themselves. It is the most important reason to keep government small. It is one of the most important reasons to limit the power of government. It is the biggest reason FOCs get involved in government.

It is one of the biggest reasons that governments fail.

The Ol’ Red, White and Blue

In general, the three colors in the flag have the following meaning.

The white: Purity and innocence

The red: Hardiness and valor

The blue: Vigilance, perseverance and justice

Originally one stripe was added whenever a state was added. Now, for practical reasons, they decided to make it thirteen stripes, one for each of the original colonies. Within the blue field, there is one star for each state. I had the privilege to have lived under a flag with 48 stars, then 49, then 50.

The concept was that Hawaii would add another republican state and Alaska another democrat state, which only goes to show that things don’t always turn out the way you expect. Sometimes I wish I could have bought a few of the flags with 48 stars. They just might be collectors items.

Over the years, more and more, the red has represented the blood that was given by those who gave their lives to protect both the banner and the nation for which it stands.

Now I ask you, what is it about that flag that makes it unworthy of our respect.

Maybe the nation it represents isn’t perfect. Nonetheless, it symbolizes a nation that is constantly striving to be worthy of the standards it represents. And even if you cannot bring yourself to respect the banner, you should at least respect those who died for it… and your right to complain. The vast number of nations since the beginning of recorded history never had that that right, not even the English who answered to a king until a short time before the American Revelation.

So, go ahead. Tell me what nation has provided its modern citizenry much in exchange for so little. Those who were before us paid for our freedom. With that freedom comes responsibilities. If we abuse our freedom, those behind us will not enjoy it.

So. Next time you see the flag, you just might remember what it cost.

What Happened to Speedy Trials

It was on January 6 that people ran into The Capitol Building. I know. Every day the FOCs remind me. They keep wanting a highly democrat controled committee to study what happen. I can save them the money. I can tell them what happen but what’s the use. They aren’t about to listen to me. Besides, they have their mind made up already. They will discard any piece of evidence, regardless how small, that counters their foregone conclusions.

However, I want to address a different matter. It is a waste of time to say anything about the committee. As I said, the outcome is already set in rock. The thing I want to address are a number of questions about those arrested. I don’t have any idea why others aren’t asking them.

It is now June, almost July. Where are the speedy trials? What are the charges? Do these horrible people have lawyers? After all, even murderers and kidnappers get lawyers. Have any trial dates been set yet and are they going to be in this decade? For that matter, has anyone figured out what horrible things they have done? I mean, trespassers are generally released on bail inside a day or two. Where are these people? Does anyone know or have they just disappeared.

And there is one more question. Why aren’t the real criminals, the ones burning down stores and court buildings charged with crimes. Why aren’t they required to stand before a judge and plead guilty or innocent.

Then, of course, why weren’t they given a speedy fair trial…then thrown in prison with the rest of the criminals. That way our streets will be safer. Then again, because their friends, the dems are in power and the only people charges of crimes have Rs after their names. The criminals are free to roam the streets where they can beat old men and smack old women in the face. Why shouldn’t they do such things when they know they can get away with it?

Fear

Many of us learn fear from our youth. For some people the fear is not natural. Some people refuse to leave their homes. Others, like me, fear heights. Fortunately, my fear of heights is more-or-less under control. Still, I refuse to go up in those rides where all they do is lift you to great heights. Some, let you rapidly descend and slow you just before you reach the ground.

I guess my fear of heights does have some basis. To be sure, the height won’t cause any harm. In general most people survive the fall. It’s that sudden stop I fear.

Some have great fear of the dark while most of us know that it isn’t the dark that can cause us harm. Now on the other hand, all those treacherous gremlin that hide in the dark….

Most of us, to some degree, fear the IRS. If you don’t believe me, just tell someone that the IRS is going to audit his last five years of returns. I suppose, to some degree, this is a good fear. It keeps most of us honest. On the other hand, the not so honest have more fear than most of us. Sometimes it nags at such people. It is the ol’ “What if” question that comes to mind, at least once or twice a day.

Often times we try to destroy what we fear. Sometimes, this is without reason. Sometimes we have a reason.

Take for instance the dems, the general news media, and especially those who have lied to the public. In general, they fear the truth and as such they try to destroy it.

This speaks well of President Trump. Those that have lied, cheated and stolen, or those who have aided and abetted those who have, have a good reason to fear the former president. He represents the truth. And, if there is one thing these folks have to fear is the truth, or those who speak the truth. It is no wonder there are so many trying to destroy President Trump and those who support him.

If they don’t fear the truth, then why won’t they let him speak? Why did they take him down from all the social sites?

It looks to me as if they are running scared. Because they fear him, they try to destroy him.

Moreover, it is a pattern. Anywhere you see someone trying to destroy the truth, it is a sign that they have something to hide. Remember Ms. Clinton and her E-mails. She feared the truth getting out more than she feared the penalty of the law. Then again, she does have a D after her name. She did know she had a good chance of getting away with it. So she successfully broke the law and hid the truth. As such, we, the public will never know what she hid.

Floaters vs Controllers

In one group of books that I have written, I pit “floaters” against “controllers.” The floaters are the good guys who have some fantasy abilities. The controllers are the bad guys and are passionately and ruthlessly seeking power. They let nothing get in the way, including each other.

In truth, there are no floaters. They are from my imagination. I dreamed them up all by myself. I got the idea from all the detective shows where the bodies are discovered floating in some body of water.

On the other hand, in a sense the controllers do exist. If I were asked to point one out, I’d have to say that Cuomo is close to the perfect example of what I had in mind, about ten years ago when I started the series. Unfortunately, I could not use him as as my typecast. At that time, I hardly heard of the man, let alone all the horrible things he has done.

I must say that he does have quite a few competitors for prime example. The democrat party is full of them. Control is far more important to them than the good of The United States of America and its citizens. For that matter, their plans for the world at large are awfully bad too. I guess I should add a number of rinos to the list as well. It is easy to spot them. They are the ones without a spine. They are the ones with their fingers in the air to see which way the wind blows. They want all the glory without paying any of the price for sticking their neck out a little.

Insanely Obsessive

I’m not a psychiatrist, but something recently occurred to me. Maybe I could get a professional opinion.

The dems seem to have an obsession possibly to the point of insanity. They tried to remove Trump from office before he became president. They tried to remove him during the four years he was in office. Now they are trying to remove him from office after he already left office. No doubt about it, they seem to be possessed and driven by a demon.

Okay, that is not scientific. While I do believe that demons exists, demon possession is likely not in the book of psychiatry. Nonetheless, it has been used a time or two to represent a person’s state of mind. It appears that the dems will not rest until they have convicted the former president of something, if only j-walking. Only thing is, they can’t even seem to convict him of that.

So it would seem, driven by some kind of insanity, they are trying once again. It is contra-productive. By trying to prove him guilty, they are only proving that no one can find anything of which he is guilty. Even if the Senate were to find him guilty. The jury, the one that really counts, the public realizes his innocence. On the other hand, if he is found not guilty, they will have even failed again.

Then what? Do they pursue him in the conventional courts? I do not put it passed the dems. They just might try that. It will of course only prove my point, that they are insanely obsessive.

Incidentally, as an aside, the chief justice will not be overseeing the trial in the Senate. It would seem his decision is based on fear. It would seem to verify one of my earlier posts. I suggested that fear is the reason the justices don’t want to take up any of voter-fraud cases. Could it be that someone has suggested to them that they should conform… or else? I wonder what the or else is.

Construction/Demolition

Over the last 4 years, under President Trump we went through a great deal of construction. We brought back jobs, especially manufacturing and the world became much more stable. Not only were the minorities part of this, they were the primary beneficiaries.

In the next 4 years we will go through demolition. The dems will try to destroy everything President Trump built. They can’t help it. It is part of their genetic makeup. The problem is that they have decided to destroy anything else “Trump” as well.

Patrick Henry said, “I might not agree with what you say, but I will defend your right to say it, to my death.”

On the other hand Pelosi and her minions have a different attitude. They will defend your rights to say what you want, as long as it agrees with them. If you don’t agree with them, they will do anything they can to shut you down. As far as they are concerned you have no freedom. They would like it very much if you would move out of their country. And of course, if something goes bad wrong, they will find a republican to blame it on.

The democrats believe in freedom for them and them only. For the rest, we must shut our mouths and submit to their rule… to their control… to their tyranny. Do you think you African-Americans will benefit? Forget it. The only time the dems are interested in you is when voting day approaches. Then, after you vote, they will forget you again. As I said, the only ones they want to benefit are themselves. They want the money. They want the control. The totally want the power. Along the way, they would not mind a few accolades, even if they don’t deserve them.