Surprise, Not All Stove Are Hot

It is something, likely, as old as stoves. Most folks quickly learn not to touch hot stoves.

Actually, it is not so important today as it was a couple of centuries ago when ole Ben first started building stoves. Generally speaking, when someone would touch a hot stove, they were not apt to repeat it.

Actually, I suspect it went back even farther than that. Before there were stoves, there were fireplaces. Before fireplaces campfires, or their equivalent.

I even heard a tale of one of the big wigs at Levi learning not to kneel next to campfires…first time. It was then that they decided to remove one or two of the rivets from the area just below the fly of their famous canvas trousers.

The one thing brought away from the first experience was the probability of pain, sometimes a little embarrassment too. However, here’s the news. Not all stoves are hot. Not all rivets are hot. It just is that once exposed to these experiences we mostly come away thinking they are, or at least can be. It is referred to as inductive reasoning. Because the first stove we touch is hot, we assume all stoves are hot.

What if the reverse is true. What if the first stove you touch is ambient temperature? Do we then assume that all stoves are cool to the touch. If we do this, we expose ourselves to many painful experiences. This is called inductive reasoning.

While it is useful, it can easily lead to errors. For instance, if we see a brown Labrador retriever, it would be wrong to assume that all dogs are brown and weigh eighty pounds. Indeed, it would be wrong to assume that all Labs are brown. Oddly there are some that are black.

On the other hand, suppose we touch a hundred cool stoves. Can we then assume are stoves are cool? If we see a hundred brown Labs, are we to assume that all labs are brown.

You see, even though we see a large number of examples, we cannot truly assume anything.

Until we see a large enough number of examples, we cannot positively say that we know all labs are brown and that all stoves are cool. Even when working with large numbers, inductive reasoning can lead us astray.

I wish that kids in the eighth grade were required to spend a few hours learning about inductive and deductive reasoning. I am convinced the concept is extremely important in so many parts of life.

Let’s take for instance, the woman that is robbed by an African American. Is it right for her to be afraid of all African Americans? Of course, not. Yet, it may take her years to get over the experience. Our fears are not always founded on good logic. Indeed, her fear might keep her from many good friendships.

The somewhat opposite of inductive reasoning is deductive reasoning. In deductive reasoning, we draw conclusions from many, perhaps exhaustive numbers of examples. It is best that these examples are at random. It is the way that medical research is done. I suppose we can say that statistics and deductive reasoning are interrelated. The more the examples and the more random, the more accurate will be the stats deductive reasoning that depends on the stats.

If we have a random selection of a million dogs, it is likely that only a few will be Labs and we will likely see a few black dogs, white dogs and even a few multi-color dogs. Therefore, we can have a more accurate idea of the coloring of dogs. If we take a random measurement of a million stoves, we might actually find that only 30% are hot enough to cause pain, or even discomfort. (only a wild guess, not am actual statistic)

I’m not going to try to create an equivalent example with the thievery. It’s far too complex and there are too many ways it can go wrong with my imaginary statistics. Moreover, I am not going to suggest that a woman should get robbed a million times. Two or three maybe, but no more. Still, the principles remain firm. With a larger number of examples, we would be able to draw more accurate deductions.

However, we need to be careful about drawing snap conclusions. When we go from the millions of examples and try to derive a single situation from millions of examples, we can still be wrong. For instance, if I may. It would not indicate that a thief is of any ethnicity, and it would be wrong to make any such suggestion.

Yet, every day, I see some people blame Black men because of individual as well as vast statistical data. Those methods just don’t work. And, by the way, the methods don’t work on Caucasian policemen, again, regardless of past inductive or deductive reasoning. You cannot convict a policeman based on past experience just as the woman cannot convict based on past thieves.

Perhaps the most horrible example of inductive reasoning is when the person says, “Single parent families are just as good as two-parent families.” Then they go about calling out two, three or four examples of good kids brough up by single parents. That logic has two holes. First, it is based on a very small count of examples. Second, there is the probability that, if there is a second parent, the child would likely have turned out better. The statistics back it up. We are talking millions of examples not just two or three.

On the other side of the coin, I see people say that a particular person turned out good or bad because of his parent(s). The stats prove that some good kids come from bad or broken homes and bad kids come from homes with good parents.

In this case, the inductive logic gets us nowhere and the deductive logic only shows trends. The trend shows overwhelmingly that two parent homes are better. But logic tells us that it is only true if they are good parents. Abusive and or alcoholic parents rarely qualify as good parents. Yet, again, some good kids come from homes with abusive parents. Sorry. I have no explanation for that. I’m not sure there is one.

For those who are not truly familiar with the terms inductive and deductive reasoning, may I suggest you take an hour or two and look into it on the net. Most will find it far more complex than most of us realize. For instance, one thing that must accurately be determined in inductive reasoning is an accurate correlation. For instance, that dance by that Voo-do doctor likely has nothing to do with that solar eclipse. On the other hand, all that rain I dumped on my lawn the other day likely had nothing to do with the thunderstorm we got the next day, though it did seem a little coincidental. If we collected enough data, it is likely to be proved that the one thing had nothing to do with the other.

Almost Paradise

As I considered the title to this post, I realized I came up with something of a good book title. At least, it seemed that way to me. Now, I need is a good book to go with it. Come to think of it, maybe someone did already. It would be a shame if someone else beat me to it.

The point is that the place I moved to in 1977 was really nice and had been for decades. It was almost paradise, though there were a few problems.

Some of the roads were spread with pot holes. My poor little car had a real problem with the little trailer bouncing around behind us. There were but a small smattering of places to eat and we could find but 1 doctor office, 1 dentist and one pharmacy. The closest hospital was 15 or 16 miles away.

However, the schools were nice and there weren’t many police. Wasn’t much need for them. It truly was almost paradise.

In this world there are problems with paradises. Southern California, before 1950 was an almost paradise. Now, look at it. I won’t go through the list of problems there now. Everyone knows. The desire to live in paradise has destroyed it. Now the U-hauls are leaving and the people are going to other paradises; as Texas, Florida, etc.

in all likelihood, those paradises will be spoiled too. It almost always happens. Unfortunately, paradises draw the unsavory element as well as the exemplary.

It’s happened and is happening where I live. If I possible, I’d leave as soon as i could. If there were an army of police, it would not be enough. The undesirable element is drifting south from Memphis. It does say something about Memphis. No one wants to leave a good place for a worse one.

We now have doctors hospitals dentists, the whole works. Even the streets are smooth. However, it seems that every fourth car I see nowadays has Shelby County plates.

Don’t actually have too much of an objection if they want to spend Tennessee dollars in Mississippi, but they bring their driving habits too. Not only that but they bring their crime, mostly drugs, and robbery too. A couple of years ago, I posted a story about a break in in my house. Dumb thief! One look at my little 900 square foot house and he’d have known I don’t have anything.

The area right across the state line had two big thriving malls and the area around it had a multitude of stores, restaurants and businesses. The malls are now all but closed and the parking lots are all baren.

Needless to say, the value of my little house has skyrocketed. Every time Memphis comes up with a bad idea my property value goes up.

The problem is that as they leave what used to be a near paradise, they bring their stupid ideas with them, and ruin our neighborhoods.

It is not just a local problem. It won’t be long that the illegal aliens will bring their ways to our nation and destroy our national paradise.

This reminds me of a passage in the Bible in which it says that murderers, thieves, liars, adulterers, etc, etc, and so forth will never go to heaven (paradise).

At the time I first read it, I did not see the full significance as I do now. You see, any place where such people are allowed would not be paradise. It would not be long before even the steets of heaven would be ruined. When the corrupt are denied access, about anywhere would be great. Then, with Jesus there too, it will be perfect.

If you would like to go there, you need a reservation. The only way to get the reservation is to accept Jesus as your savior. Then, he will cleanse you. Those not born again are not cleansed. They will not enter paradise. They will only see eternal punishment.

if you think about it, it makes sense. Who wants a paradise full of corruption and the corrupt. Certainly, God doesn’t.

Now if I could just get all these liberals to go back to Memphis where they belong!!

Everyone Should be Upset at This

Just heard Joe wants to outlaw vaping and nicotine in cigarettes. Now, I’m just as anxious as the next guy to rid the world of them cancer sticks. I have seen what they do to people but most people survive their 1st cigarette. Indeed, many live into their 70s or 80s as they suck on on the things.

On the other hand Joe will not lift a little finger to prevent fentenyl from entering the US and killing thousands of our youth with 1 dose. I think Joe will need to explain that one day and will realize he really made a bad decision.

Personally, I think anyone convicted of distributing the stuff should spend 20-25 years in prison. Moreover, maximum pressure should be taken to keep China from wagging criminal war on our country.

A Little Encouragement

A republican born in Mexico just got elected to House representative in a district heavily Hispanic. If that sort of thing happens too much more, the FOCs will seal off the border tighter than a bank vault. Also, ICE will get really busy flying illegal aliens home.

Very likely all that empathizing for all those marching north will disappear faster than a rabbit into a magician’s hat. All those dems will show their real colors like a color wheel. Oh. And by the way, they will try to convince us all that it was the way all along.

Build the Wall??

For a long time now, I have written strongly in favor of a wall on the Mexican border. Here lately, I am beginning to wonder if we should build a wall south of Memphis.

We have for years had problems with Memphians. Frequently, Memphis residents brought their attention children to Desoto County schools. Not only is that wrong, it’s illegal.

I suppose it’s an admission that Desoto County schools are better. To be sure, they are doing this at quite a risk. I don’t know what the penalty is but I am sure it would hurt. They risk someone checking plates as they drop off their children.

Besides, it means driving children to and from school. That can’t be easy. Then the kids must learn dishonesty. Not only must they lie about where they live, but they must guard against a slip of the tongue that might reveal their true domicile.

Over time, things kept getting worse. They have brought their driving habits, their drugs and crime.

Now it’s become unbearable. They have brought their politics. That means Desoto County will soon have all the disadvantages of Memphis, including the horrible schools.

So. We need a really big wall.

I suspect that isn’t legal. Maybe it is too late anyway. Well. At least they won’t be bringing their kids to our schools. That will save us a bit on our taxes.

Now, if we can just keep their drugs and crimes north of that little invisible line separating Memphis from Mississippi.

It is sort-of what happens when you allow socialist to migrate into conservative areas.

Supplying Our Needs

Some folks seem to think that Old Joe Biden just doesn’t know how to manage supplying things. They point to all the ships waiting to dock in Los Angeles and Long Beach harbors. I guess they do have something of a point.

However, he is really good at supplying the important things. I understand he just almost managed to get a terrorist into the US the other day. No telling how many he managed to bring in before. Then of course there are the drugs. He is bringing drugs into the country in record quantities. It is a shame they are causing record death instead of the help that President Trump managed.

Then there is the disease he has managed to bring into the US. While he pretends to care about reducing the China Virus, he has brought thousands of cases north, just so he fire people who don’t want the vaccine. (Maybe he could reduce the cases more by testing those entering by the border.)

By the way, he just almost brought two people in who had TB. They tested positive at the border. I wonder just how many people would just love an epidemic of TB right in the middle of everything else. Perhaps he would just love to see TB or some similar disease break out in some big major hospital.

I don’t think I like this occupier of the oval office, him or his cohort. What’s his name now? Oh, yes. Fauci. He seems to be the one who managed to help him win the election without speaking hardly a word to the public. Both of them ought to be in prison.

Speaking of prison, it would seem that he also brought a few of his friends north, the type who belong in prison. This of course he does while saying we commoners have no need of guns. The police will protect us, the police who he and his friends virtually destroyed.

Chemical is the C In NBC

One of the first things I learned about in the Marines was the meaning of NBC symbols I saw here and there. When I asked, I was told it stands for nuclear, biological and chemical… as in warfare.

To be sure we should be diligent about the nuclear aspect, but we ought not ignore the other two.

Lately, there is the new fear of the hypersonic missiles while most want to ignore the biological weapon China just released on us. I am not writing about that — as it would be redundant. I already did that.

On the other hand I want to consider the C, chemical warfare. To be sure, we are under chemical attack by China. They decided to use drugs, especially fentanyl.

They don’t release it into our water or food supplies as has been feared. With our safeguards, that would be too difficult and risky. I mean, what if they were caught. The world would instantly condemn them and, as a nation, they would quickly become insignificant.

So they provide it to the Mexican cartels and allow them to get rich whilst we, mostly our precious youth, take the poison willingly, or rather eagerly.

This they do whilst we and the world stand by and watch. To be sure, the FOCs outright cheer it on. (And they claim they are the party of the commoner)

Indeed it is far more effective than poisoning our food or water. It doesn’t just kill the one who takes it; but also it destroys the primary building blocks of all civilizations, the families. To be sure, it is also decimating our justice system. Half of all law enforcement endeavors involve drugs in one way or another. It has clogged our courts.

If we could stop drug abuse, this country would become far better overnight, if not sooner. That means one of the primary goals should be to stop the inflow of the poison. This would include but not limited to, an ultimatum to the Chinese. After all, they are the primary source of the poison and they are the nation waging the chemical warfare on us. It might also be a good idea to send some troops south to deal with those cartels. We need to teach them them the cost of crime.

Most important during a war. Don’t help the enemy. It is sort-of common sense.

Rumors

There are rumors and then there are rumors about rumors. While I was in the Marines, I learned only to believe the bad rumors. It was surprising how often I was right. When I was wrong, I was never disappointed.

Normally, I try to stay away from rumors. It is sort of like gossiping and the Bible tells us that we shouldn’t do that. Nonetheless, I heard one rumor that just took hold of me, not that I want to spread it, but that I want to study it for just a short while.

It seems that someone has suggested that the FOCs have been looking into the procedures on how to replace a vice-president.

I thought on the subject. Just, why would they want to replace the VP? I figure it this way. They just might be thinking about what to do should Joe kick the bucket. On the other hand, maybe his lack mental ability have become so obvious that they want to talk him into resigning. “Come on Joe. You know we like you but we are getting tired of sending out search parties for you in The White House.” Of course you know this part is not true. I am sure they always keep a handler nearby, but you get the idea.

I really hate to think of it, but should Joe resign, we will be looking at Kamala as Commander in Chief and she’s the border czar that can’t seem to find the border. Oddly, she scares me more than Joe.

Then the thought occurs to me. There is no way Kamala would ever get re-elected. Remember, she’s the one that dropped out of the primaries before things even got started. The truth is, if it wasn’t for the fact that she is black and female, ol’ Joe would have never have selected her for a running mate. To this day, he probably wishes he hadn’t. Remember, he knows his frailty better than any of us and it is probable that even he is scared of what might happen should he have to leave her in charge.

That would suggest that they might want to first replace Kamala as VP and then, maybe replace Joe. Then, they would be in search of another VP.

This thought does sort of disturb me. Though we just might end up with a better president and VP, neither of them will have been elected. They will have been selected by the FOCs. That is scary. The might even select Pelosi or Mrs. Clinton. You remember her, Ms Deplorable herself.

Of course, none of this is likely true. Then again, remember my rule, “Believe only the bad rumors and you will never be disappointed.”

I Finally Figured it Out

I get it. I’ve finally figured it out. The wealthy are trying to drive down the value of beach front property so they can buy it up. While they say the seas are rising, they keep buying properties below the predicted sea levels.

Obama has two properties that will soon be under water should his prophecy come true.

Personally, I will not believe any of them until they start building seawalls. So far, I see no hint of that. On the contrary, they keep buying the low lying expensive real estate. It is certainly clear that these FOCs don’t believe what they preach.

A side note: Some of those who have low lying mansions, just might realize that walls really do work and they just might start on their own.

It’s Just Not the Same

Many people like like to point out the migration that took place on Ellis Island and try to equivocate it the avalanche of those coming across the Mexican border. Even as they speak, they know it’s not nearly the same, that is unless they have less of a brain than a nail on the wall.

For those unable to figure out the difference, let me explain it.

First, no one who was sick was permitted into the country. Indeed the hospital where they were kept still stands and, though I might be wrong, it can still be toured. It was where the diseased were kept until well. Those who were not curable went back to where they came from. Had AIDS been a disease back then, no one would have been permitted in with it. However, today it is a political disease and people with AIDS are permitted in regularly, which likely resulted in the loss of many lives. Because there is no desire to do any tracing, there is no way to tell how many. There is no way to make a reasonable guess.

Secondly, it was highly organized. All who tried to enter were interviewed and if they were considered undesirable. they were returned to their country. Certainly, those who had a desire to overthrow the country were not permitted in. Those who had no money or a desired trade were turned away. It was not intended that we should be the welfare state of the world. Finally, those who were criminals were returned to their own country. To be sure, we were not perfect in this regard. Apparently, many criminals did make it through. However, they also turned many away. On the Mexican border, none are turned away.

Third, there were limits, quotas for each country. The obvious attempt was to keep any one nation from overwhelming our civilization. Even though most did separate themselves somewhat into groups, they eventually did assimilate. Until recently, we spoke one language in the schools businesses and our government. Now, when school meetings are held, it is not uncommon for them to be held in three languages. Worse, children are in our schools who don’t know the how to speak English, let alone read and write. They are not the only ones affected. All the learning is hampered.

And, by the way, it makes it more expensive too. Many who of those slowing the learning should not be in the classroom. They are there illegally. If ten illegal children are in a class, that means two-thirds are paying to educate three-thirds. That is not right.

Fourth, many who come over the border are criminals. It causes the crime rates to go up and it increases the cost of enforcing the law. Many communities that were reasonably peaceful now have a meaningful population of criminals who are not Americans.

Fifth, back in the day, cartels did not control our borders. Nowadays, they do control the Mexican borders. The US would be completely right to send in troops and wipe out the cartels. The US is under their attack. However, no one, but not one will do that, though they fire across the river nightly.

If things were now as they were then, I would not mind the immigration. Somehow, I don’t think there are many who will pay me any attention. They are afraid of someone saying something in the social media, which would force them out into the Outer Limits.

So instead, they watch as our nation falls into oblivion.

OH YES! ONE MORE THING. BACK THEN WE DID NOT HAVE THE FLOOD OF DEADLY DRUGS OVER THE BORDERS.

BUILD THE WALL!!