Surprise, Not All Stove Are Hot

It is something, likely, as old as stoves. Most folks quickly learn not to touch hot stoves.

Actually, it is not so important today as it was a couple of centuries ago when ole Ben first started building stoves. Generally speaking, when someone would touch a hot stove, they were not apt to repeat it.

Actually, I suspect it went back even farther than that. Before there were stoves, there were fireplaces. Before fireplaces campfires, or their equivalent.

I even heard a tale of one of the big wigs at Levi learning not to kneel next to campfires…first time. It was then that they decided to remove one or two of the rivets from the area just below the fly of their famous canvas trousers.

The one thing brought away from the first experience was the probability of pain, sometimes a little embarrassment too. However, here’s the news. Not all stoves are hot. Not all rivets are hot. It just is that once exposed to these experiences we mostly come away thinking they are, or at least can be. It is referred to as inductive reasoning. Because the first stove we touch is hot, we assume all stoves are hot.

What if the reverse is true. What if the first stove you touch is ambient temperature? Do we then assume that all stoves are cool to the touch. If we do this, we expose ourselves to many painful experiences. This is called inductive reasoning.

While it is useful, it can easily lead to errors. For instance, if we see a brown Labrador retriever, it would be wrong to assume that all dogs are brown and weigh eighty pounds. Indeed, it would be wrong to assume that all Labs are brown. Oddly there are some that are black.

On the other hand, suppose we touch a hundred cool stoves. Can we then assume are stoves are cool? If we see a hundred brown Labs, are we to assume that all labs are brown.

You see, even though we see a large number of examples, we cannot truly assume anything.

Until we see a large enough number of examples, we cannot positively say that we know all labs are brown and that all stoves are cool. Even when working with large numbers, inductive reasoning can lead us astray.

I wish that kids in the eighth grade were required to spend a few hours learning about inductive and deductive reasoning. I am convinced the concept is extremely important in so many parts of life.

Let’s take for instance, the woman that is robbed by an African American. Is it right for her to be afraid of all African Americans? Of course, not. Yet, it may take her years to get over the experience. Our fears are not always founded on good logic. Indeed, her fear might keep her from many good friendships.

The somewhat opposite of inductive reasoning is deductive reasoning. In deductive reasoning, we draw conclusions from many, perhaps exhaustive numbers of examples. It is best that these examples are at random. It is the way that medical research is done. I suppose we can say that statistics and deductive reasoning are interrelated. The more the examples and the more random, the more accurate will be the stats deductive reasoning that depends on the stats.

If we have a random selection of a million dogs, it is likely that only a few will be Labs and we will likely see a few black dogs, white dogs and even a few multi-color dogs. Therefore, we can have a more accurate idea of the coloring of dogs. If we take a random measurement of a million stoves, we might actually find that only 30% are hot enough to cause pain, or even discomfort. (only a wild guess, not am actual statistic)

I’m not going to try to create an equivalent example with the thievery. It’s far too complex and there are too many ways it can go wrong with my imaginary statistics. Moreover, I am not going to suggest that a woman should get robbed a million times. Two or three maybe, but no more. Still, the principles remain firm. With a larger number of examples, we would be able to draw more accurate deductions.

However, we need to be careful about drawing snap conclusions. When we go from the millions of examples and try to derive a single situation from millions of examples, we can still be wrong. For instance, if I may. It would not indicate that a thief is of any ethnicity, and it would be wrong to make any such suggestion.

Yet, every day, I see some people blame Black men because of individual as well as vast statistical data. Those methods just don’t work. And, by the way, the methods don’t work on Caucasian policemen, again, regardless of past inductive or deductive reasoning. You cannot convict a policeman based on past experience just as the woman cannot convict based on past thieves.

Perhaps the most horrible example of inductive reasoning is when the person says, “Single parent families are just as good as two-parent families.” Then they go about calling out two, three or four examples of good kids brough up by single parents. That logic has two holes. First, it is based on a very small count of examples. Second, there is the probability that, if there is a second parent, the child would likely have turned out better. The statistics back it up. We are talking millions of examples not just two or three.

On the other side of the coin, I see people say that a particular person turned out good or bad because of his parent(s). The stats prove that some good kids come from bad or broken homes and bad kids come from homes with good parents.

In this case, the inductive logic gets us nowhere and the deductive logic only shows trends. The trend shows overwhelmingly that two parent homes are better. But logic tells us that it is only true if they are good parents. Abusive and or alcoholic parents rarely qualify as good parents. Yet, again, some good kids come from homes with abusive parents. Sorry. I have no explanation for that. I’m not sure there is one.

For those who are not truly familiar with the terms inductive and deductive reasoning, may I suggest you take an hour or two and look into it on the net. Most will find it far more complex than most of us realize. For instance, one thing that must accurately be determined in inductive reasoning is an accurate correlation. For instance, that dance by that Voo-do doctor likely has nothing to do with that solar eclipse. On the other hand, all that rain I dumped on my lawn the other day likely had nothing to do with the thunderstorm we got the next day, though it did seem a little coincidental. If we collected enough data, it is likely to be proved that the one thing had nothing to do with the other.

The Biggest Problem With the Marines

After 9 years in the Marines, it saddens me as I watch what happens to it. I’m sure that I’m not alone though I have yet to check around.

To be sure, it has gotten soft. If I went a day without getting hit during boot camp, it was a real oddity. OK. I admit it. It caused a little pain. In the end, I knew my drill instructor had my interest in mind. The pain only increased my chances of my survival, which also increased the chances for the marines around me. Being in the air wing, I never saw any real combat, but i was plenty close enough for me. I also met many who did see the combar. I drew the conclusion that, no matter the pain, better to learn in training.

Certainly, the advent of politically correct experiments haven’t helped. Well, they helped the politicians. When staying alive is the object, politics matter less than nothing. And one of the best ways to stay alive is by killing the enemy, as horrible as that may sound. When you keep him on the run, his abilities to kill you are greatly reduced.

Then, I ask, do we really need women in foxholes? Does it really improve our abilities to rain terror on the enemy? I know for sure 2 things about that. I would never willingly share a foxhole with a woman and no woman would ever want to share a foxhole with me.

I could certainly carry on just about forever on the subject, but the question is the biggest problem with the Marines. That’s simple. That’s obvious. The biggest problem with the entire Department of Defense is the commander in chief. No one person has done more damage to our military than Joe has.

My only question, is it stupidity on intentional. Likely, it is both. The problems with the likes of Joe giving the orders is that learning war tactics by experience is horribly expensive and there are no backspace keys. Mistakes are very permanent.

The Inevitable Result of the Pipeline

It is one of those old laws so to speak of the pipeline. If what you put in is bad, most likely what you get out the other end will be bad. So let’s take a quick look at the pipeline and what we are putting in and just what is coming out.

We put in children from broken Godless homes. We send them through schools where no one can say anyting about God, or even speak the truth about good and evil without someone losing his job. We teach that mankind has no greater importance than a whale, porpoise or ape, and the kids come out believing all things they are taught.

If a person is no more than an animal, but more intelligent and with apposing thumbs: if all man is doing is destroying plants, animals and the climate, then why not believe he has improved the world by destroying some of the horrible human inhabitants?

Don’t all animals go around killing others, even of their own type? Why shouldn’t men kill other men? We are only soulless animals as all the others.

Indeed, as a society, we kill even the youngest and most innocent. Joe speaks as if it is our duty kill babies before they have a chance to breathe the air we breath, to be sure, before they are protected by law.

If there are any statistics, I suspect they would prove at least 8 out of 10 killers come from broken homes where the Bible was never read.

And so it would seem that I’m blaming broken homes for all the shootings. Nothing could be farther from the truth. God tells us we each are responsible for our own actions.

After all, Eve blamed the snake. Adam blamed Eve and even implied God was guilty because He made Eve for him.

Mankind always looks for excuses, a way out. Yet, when we do we always make things worse. So, Joe tries to blame the weapon instead of the shooter. That makes about as much sense as Cain blaming the rock for his killing Able. You notice even Cain was not that dumb.

I’ve said it before and I’ll repeat it till the day I die. The time to pray is before the disasters. Afterwards is too late. But then, the government won’t let us pray beforehand, only after.

So, the pipeline made up of broken homes and atheist schools keeps turning out kids who know not the difference between good and evil. To that degree, society is guilty. How can they know right from wrong when no one is permitted to teach them.

The Biggest Fear of Our Forefathers

As they were froming the federal government, one fear drove them more than anything else. It is the reason for having 3 separate parts:legislative, executive and judicial. Each has its own powers and limits. That way, the hope was that no one person or group of people would exceed their authority.

In addition, they added 10 amendments. If you study them carefully, you’ll see that, while each has its purpose, collectively they have 1 purpose, to protect the individuals from the government.

Now, why did they feel the need for protection from our government. It’s because they were afraid of the tyranny of the majority.

Without the bill of rights, the majority could take control of the government. Then, ironically it could be ruled by a small minority. If you doubt the fear to be valid, look at what we have now, a one party rule.

The hope of the forefathers was that a free press would keep them in check. On the contrary, they are doing all they can to assist the overthrow of our constitution.

Now the Bill of Rights is on the verge of being trodden under the feet of socialists. They hate freedom of religion and they are destroying our rights to have our say. They want to remove our right to defend ourselves. I could go on but I’m sure you get the picture.

Still, I must add one more remark i heard lately. It would seem that the dems interpret the 10th amendment as reserving all powers not specified in the Constitution to the democrat party.

Maybe it’s a joke, but I am sure they would accept said power without a second thought.

To be sure, we just might be realizing the tyranny of the majority within the decade. It was the primary fear of the framers of our Constitution and today, the threat stands before us and it isn’t even well hidden. What a legacy to leave for our children, especially considering the freedom we inherited.

THE PROBLEM WITH BEGGING!

There is an old adage. (I know adage means old saying and saying old adage is being redundant. However, nowadays, many are unaware of that and expect the word pairing.)

At any rate, as I was saying, it is an old saying that beggars can’t be choosy. Certainly that’s so, so true today as well as when the adage was first uttered…or written, whichever.

So, the day Joe became the occupier of the Oval Office, he set this nation on a path to begging. So, it would appear his wish has come true.

About 18 months ago, the US was an exporter of energy. Now, Joe is going around, hat in hand, begging for oil. As a beggar, he will need to accept their conditions or we’ll need to cut down our forrests for fire wood to stay warm.

This would cut back on fossil fuel usage; but it sure would increase the pollution. Also, with no more trees, the birds would have to build their nests on the ground, on power lines or tops of buildings.

Maybe the better idea is as it was when Joe took office…DRILL, BABY, DRILL.

He might not like fossil fuel but it would be our fossil fuel and it would be so much better than chopping down all those wonderful trees. Still, chopping down the trees is still better than freezing to death. Besides, what do we use in the place of fire wood when the trees are gone, fossil fuel?

There are a few asides. I can’t get my car to burn wood. 2nd, with the price of oil back down at 40 dollars a barrel, it would sure slow inflation. Finally, possibly most importantly, Putin couldn’t afford to wage wars at the lower price. Neither would he be able to make his threats.

Unmasking Masks

It would seem that, with exceptions, masks have become optional. Maybe, soon, they will be history.

It does not surprise me. If there was a reason to wear masks, they have had two years to prove it. No one did. On the contrary, I have heard reports of studies disproving their effectiveness.

I guess that was the reason for the judge’s ruling. I guess that is the reason the decision was not contested. I would suspect it won’t be long most of us will be maskless henceforth.

Next, hopefully, the mandatory vaccines will fade into obscurity. Then, maybe they will start allowing effective treatments. Seems to me that there are a few we already know of that work. There are even a couple inexpensive ones.

Diplomacy

They say war happens when diplomacy fails.

Well, guess what. Diplomacy failed.

It failed during Obama’s term now there is no more country of Crimea.

Diplomacy did not fail during Trump’s term. We know this because there was no war.

Diplomacy failed during Biden’s term…just a short time after his first year.

I wonder. Just how many more of these diplomacy failures are we going to have before Biden’s term is over? Maybe the next one will be that little island off the coast of China. Even now, Xi is likely making preparations.

As usual, I have an aside. While China is busy adding to their real estate, Putin just might go after one or two of the Bulkens or maybe Poland. Do you think Biden can actually deal with two diplomacy failures, or maybe three. Iran just might like the idea of making Biden juggle three disasters at once. It is not likely, but it’s possible, some would say probable.

Let’s All Park Our Cars

The newsman asked, “What happens if gas goes upto 8 or 10 dollars a gallon?”

The man replied, “I guess I park my car walk or take the bus or train. “

That would seem to be the answer for most of us. To be sure, that is certainly the desire of the FOCs. They have said as much.

On the hand, you know the FOCs won’t park theirs. I would suspect they won’t park their planes or yachts either. They are privileged by power and wealth.

So, how will you feel when they ride while we walk?

As usual, here is my side note. Good luck selling your car while everyone else is selling theirs.

2nd note. When people park their cars, less cars will be built. That is bad news for those that build cars.

Windmills, Solar Cells and Drive Through Restaurants Forever

It would seem the two have no relation with the third but I assure you they do.

When I first moved into this area, there were few restaurants of any kind, even fewer drive throughs. We had no McDonald’s nor Burger King. If we were going to eat out, we mostly had to drive up into Memphis. In a way, that was a good thing. Back then I had debts, a family and not much of of an income. Today, a $230 mortgage payment does not seem a lot. Well, in 1977, it was enormous for someone who just left the Marines and settled in a town far away from my native California.

We eked by over the years, paid off our bills, the kids are now out on their own and now, one of our major expenses are two old dogs. I do mean old, both over 12. So we spend a lot on dog food and vet bills. However, we have a very wide selection of places to eat, from large nice places to small nice places. I might add we also have a few places that are not so nice.

With the two of us getting older, I’ve decided to spoil the wife as much as I can; so we eat out more than we eat in. That saves washing dishes, if nothing else. Mostly, when we eat in, we put the microwave to use. I’ve even considered buying a second one but I’m not so sure the old aluminum wiring in the house could handle it. Therefore, from time to time, we use the stove, though we try to keep oven use to the winter.

Then the China virus hit. That was a big disruption to our life style. To the best of my knowledge, neither of us has had it, though we do know a few who have. Instantly, however, we went to using drive throughs.

Did I mention that I really hate drive throughs. However, I had no choice. Suddenly, everyone closed their dinning room. Worse, I had to wear a mask in the local grocer. They took my temp as I entered and if I got too close to that century mark, we would have had to go hungry, as well as the poor dogs. The wife and I can stand a day or two without food but the dogs have sort-of become used to a regular meal.

Besides, the wife and I could go to a drive through. Most of them do not sell dog food. I would have tried to explain but they simply would not have understood, though their vocabulary is pretty good. Being a little overweight, it would do them good to miss a meal. My best guess is that they still would not have liked it.

So, during the beginning of the pandemic, whenever we went to a restaurant for food, we went through a drive through and brought it home. Sometimes we took it to a park, when the weather permitted. It beat staring at the same walls I’ve been looking at for over thirty years.

Now, after all this time, a little less than half the restaurants have opened their dining rooms. Fortunately, 2 days before our anniversary, Outback opened their dining room. I thanked them for that and again I thank them publicly. We both had a nice steak and baked potato in really nice surroundings. In addition, neither of us washed one dish.

Now that some things are somewhat back to normal, I think back over it all. Moreover, I wonder if the next wave of the virus will drive us indoors again, and back to the drive throughs.

Then today, I thought of those who want to “save energy” and decrease “CO2.” I went back all through my memory over the time since Fauci began his rampage and I cannot find one instance of anyone wanting to do away with drive throughs.

I find the concept of using acres to generate electricity wasteful, though maybe a tad successful. I find windmills pretty useless on a calm day. Moreover, I am sure the two methods require a lot of maintenance.

Then I shake my head at the whole mess. The amount of energy produced by solar cells is likely countered by the energy wasted waiting in line for Whoppers. The carbon dioxide saved by windmills is likely greatly countered by the fumes coming from cars waiting on their driver’s Big Macs. Yet, no one has said a thing about it.

I figured out why. It really makes since. The green earth folks consider the convenience of a drive through more important than the energy used. The importance of staying in their air-conditioned autos more important carbon the spewed while they sit there and wait… their engines doing nothing while the car’s occupants remain comfortable.

Am I wrong? Maybe. Still, why do I not hear any of them complain about drive throughs.

And so it is, we are stuck here with windmills, solar cells and drive throughs forever. It’s not that we can’t do anything about it. It just seems few, if any, want to.

Besides, it makes it so much simpler for the FOCs to control us.

I’m Confused

If colleges continue to shut down for China virus, I can’t imagine anyone paying tuition to go to college if they won’t be able to go to college.

On the other hand, it is pretty profitable to charge young men and women to remain home. Moreover, that would save dorm fees. It also has the advantage of having Mom do the laundry and such.

Another drawback the students would have is they might get stuck with the old daily chores.

Enough . The bottom line question is, “Will they learn anything? “

Of course not. We are, after all referring to American colleges. Why should we expect them to teach anything other than socialism and how to demonstrate?